Vulnerability of Uganda to climate change
The world is headed for a 3° C temp rise above preindustrial levels[1]. The impacts of such a significant increase are going to be disastrous for natural and human systems. Already, with a temperature rise of 0.8° C, the world is having a very different weather from what it has been before. Droughts, floods, sea level rises are more frequent and intense because of a warmer global climate.
Uganda has not escaped these impacts. The country has as a result of climate change experienced more frequent floods, landslides in mountainous areas and disease outbreaks[2]. For example, in the period 1991-2000, Uganda experienced seven drought episodes2. Climate change is going to affect agriculture and grassland ecosystems in Uganda very strongly. A 2° C rise in temperature will make many areas unsuitable for agriculture. Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy of Uganda, employing more than 70% of Ugandans and the single most important foreign exchange earner for the country. Projections are that Uganda’s climate is going to become wetter, with more precipitation in the dry season of December - February[3]. Increasing precipitation in Uganda will likely transform grasslands into woodlands and affect fauna (wild and/or domesticated) dependant on a grass ecosystem. Observations are that Queen Elizabeth national park in Uganda is registering more rain in recent years[4].
The sum effect of these impacts that we are already witnessing are faster urban migrations. There has been an unprecedented migration of people from the semi-arid north east of Uganda, the Karamojong and these are already stretching social services in the city. There has been significant crop failure that has partly contributed to soaring food prices. Food prices have increased by up to 300% in the last 8 years. Ugandan families have low capacity to withstand climate change shocks[3]. This is partly because the country is highly dependent on natural resources, has a low income per capita and heavy reliance on rain fed agriculture.
Global warming is caused by accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In Uganda the main sources and sectors of greenhouse gas emissions are deforestation, charcoal making and transportation. Uganda has a very high deforestation rate. It is estimated that 50% of Uganda’s forest has been lost in the last 100 years. The key drivers for forest loss are growing demand for land to grow crops and harveting of fuelwood[5]. According to Jacoveli (2009)5, Uganda lost 92000 ha of forest in 2007 alone.
It is imperative that actions to limit GHG emissions and to prepare communities to live in a warmer world are undertaken without delay. Uganda is undertaking different actions that contribute to reduced carbon emissions and carbon sequestration. Key among which is planting trees in degraded forest areas or on farmers’ land. The Uganda Timber Growers Association with support from Sawlog Production Grant Scheme has established over 10,000 ha of tree plantations[5],[6].
There are no adaptation actions known to be undertaken in Uganda against climate change. But there are many possible actions to choose from, and perhaps the most relevant for now is to create a robust traffic plan to decongest urban centres especially Kampala city to reduce traffic jams. Cars moving at a slow pace are some of the contribution to high gas emissions. Uganda is just creating its infrastructure and the opportunity to build wide roads still exists. Others adaptation actions include investments in protecting sloping lands that are prone to landslides by planting trees for example, with the co-benefit of sequestering carbon. The report by Tetra Tech ARD (2013), gives more adaptation measures for the agricultural sector[3].
A key challenge with climate change actions in Uganda is that the greater majority of Ugandans remain unaware of the connection between their actions and climate change. It is imperative that a comprehensive and well-coordinated campaign to raise awareness is undertaken in Uganda.
In conclusion, Uganda is highly vulnerable to climate change. Some mitigation actions such as tree planting are currently practiced in the country, but the country has little capacity to adapt to climate change.
[1] Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (2012). Turn down the heat: Why a 4° C warmer world must be avoided. The World Bank
[2] OXFAM 2008. Turning up the heat: climate change and poverty in Uganda. OXFAM
[3] Tetra Tech ARD (2013) Uganda climate change vulnerability assessment report. USAID
[4] Plumptre, A.J., Pomeroy, D., Stabach, J., Laporte, N., Driciru, M., Nangendo, G., Wanyama, F., Rwetsiba, A., The effects of environmental and anthropogenic changes on the Savannas of the Queen Elizabeth and Virunga National parks. pp. 88-105
[5] Jacovelli, P.A., 2009. Uganda's Sawlog Production Grant Scheme: A Success Story from Africa. International Forestry Review 11, 119-125.
[6] Natural Enterprise Development Ltd. and Environmental Alert 2005. Diagnostic Study on Small and Medium Forest Enterprises (SMFEs) in Uganda. Unpublished.
Uganda has not escaped these impacts. The country has as a result of climate change experienced more frequent floods, landslides in mountainous areas and disease outbreaks[2]. For example, in the period 1991-2000, Uganda experienced seven drought episodes2. Climate change is going to affect agriculture and grassland ecosystems in Uganda very strongly. A 2° C rise in temperature will make many areas unsuitable for agriculture. Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy of Uganda, employing more than 70% of Ugandans and the single most important foreign exchange earner for the country. Projections are that Uganda’s climate is going to become wetter, with more precipitation in the dry season of December - February[3]. Increasing precipitation in Uganda will likely transform grasslands into woodlands and affect fauna (wild and/or domesticated) dependant on a grass ecosystem. Observations are that Queen Elizabeth national park in Uganda is registering more rain in recent years[4].
The sum effect of these impacts that we are already witnessing are faster urban migrations. There has been an unprecedented migration of people from the semi-arid north east of Uganda, the Karamojong and these are already stretching social services in the city. There has been significant crop failure that has partly contributed to soaring food prices. Food prices have increased by up to 300% in the last 8 years. Ugandan families have low capacity to withstand climate change shocks[3]. This is partly because the country is highly dependent on natural resources, has a low income per capita and heavy reliance on rain fed agriculture.
Global warming is caused by accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In Uganda the main sources and sectors of greenhouse gas emissions are deforestation, charcoal making and transportation. Uganda has a very high deforestation rate. It is estimated that 50% of Uganda’s forest has been lost in the last 100 years. The key drivers for forest loss are growing demand for land to grow crops and harveting of fuelwood[5]. According to Jacoveli (2009)5, Uganda lost 92000 ha of forest in 2007 alone.
It is imperative that actions to limit GHG emissions and to prepare communities to live in a warmer world are undertaken without delay. Uganda is undertaking different actions that contribute to reduced carbon emissions and carbon sequestration. Key among which is planting trees in degraded forest areas or on farmers’ land. The Uganda Timber Growers Association with support from Sawlog Production Grant Scheme has established over 10,000 ha of tree plantations[5],[6].
There are no adaptation actions known to be undertaken in Uganda against climate change. But there are many possible actions to choose from, and perhaps the most relevant for now is to create a robust traffic plan to decongest urban centres especially Kampala city to reduce traffic jams. Cars moving at a slow pace are some of the contribution to high gas emissions. Uganda is just creating its infrastructure and the opportunity to build wide roads still exists. Others adaptation actions include investments in protecting sloping lands that are prone to landslides by planting trees for example, with the co-benefit of sequestering carbon. The report by Tetra Tech ARD (2013), gives more adaptation measures for the agricultural sector[3].
A key challenge with climate change actions in Uganda is that the greater majority of Ugandans remain unaware of the connection between their actions and climate change. It is imperative that a comprehensive and well-coordinated campaign to raise awareness is undertaken in Uganda.
In conclusion, Uganda is highly vulnerable to climate change. Some mitigation actions such as tree planting are currently practiced in the country, but the country has little capacity to adapt to climate change.
[1] Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (2012). Turn down the heat: Why a 4° C warmer world must be avoided. The World Bank
[2] OXFAM 2008. Turning up the heat: climate change and poverty in Uganda. OXFAM
[3] Tetra Tech ARD (2013) Uganda climate change vulnerability assessment report. USAID
[4] Plumptre, A.J., Pomeroy, D., Stabach, J., Laporte, N., Driciru, M., Nangendo, G., Wanyama, F., Rwetsiba, A., The effects of environmental and anthropogenic changes on the Savannas of the Queen Elizabeth and Virunga National parks. pp. 88-105
[5] Jacovelli, P.A., 2009. Uganda's Sawlog Production Grant Scheme: A Success Story from Africa. International Forestry Review 11, 119-125.
[6] Natural Enterprise Development Ltd. and Environmental Alert 2005. Diagnostic Study on Small and Medium Forest Enterprises (SMFEs) in Uganda. Unpublished.